Optimists hope that Europe can generate sufficient political will at the top to trigger an avalanche that can clear the way for social and economic policies that have some seriously positive environmental impact. Hungary’s ‘green president’ Laszlo Solyom is one such optimist: “The year 2007 has every potential for Europe to develop into a groundbreaking year for sustainable development. It seems that a long sequence of European and global efforts is near to bearing fruit.”

Some facts and statements to emerge in the past year have generated momentum for such optimism. One highlight was the 2006 publication of the Stern Report and the political backing it received from European leaders. Tony Blair hailed the publication as the most important report during his 10 years as PM, and EU President Angela Merkel supported a 20 percent emissions cut by 2020. Further weight was added by continued German and British lobbying at the G8. Two high-profile events scheduled for late-2007 could prove the tipping point: October’s Environment for Europe (EfE) ministerial conference in Belgrade, and November’s World Science Forum, initiated by Solyom. The Belgrade conference will be the first EfE gathering since the latest rounds of European Union expansion. The conference aims high: namely to evaluate progress in implementing agreed commitments and to examine implementation difficulties and their causes. There are looming uncertainties, however. Some of the most promising outcomes of the previous conference in Kiev (2003) exist merely on paper and have yet to be ratified. The celebrated Protocol on Pollutant Release and Transfer Registers to the Aarhus Convention, for example, has been ratified only by the EU Commission and four nations—Estonia, Germany, Luxembourg and Switzerland. The EfE process also seems to be leaning toward the Balkans, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia—mostly a consequence of EU enlargement. So far, the countries of South Eastern Europe seem eager to enter the EU fold, but the remainder of Eastern Europe’s non-EU countries appear to be willing to explore other options as well.

At the same time, however, there’s a good chance that Belgrade will bring together the actors needed to take a decisive step ahead toward sustainability. For this to happen, stakeholders need to join together to achieve the ultimate result—as in the farmer/turnip fable. It might be unrealistic to hope that the Belgrade conference will meet or exceed all expectations, but the event could definitely add significant bulk to the mass of support clearing the way toward sustainability.