E C O N O M I C I N S T R U M E N T S
World Carbon Emissions Fall
By Christopher Flavin, Worldwatch Institute
For the first time since 1993, global emissions of carbon from the combustion of fossil fuels declined in 1998, falling 0.5 percent to 6.32 billion tons, according to the Worldwatch Institute.In the same year, the world economy expanded 2.5 percent, thereby suggesting an accelerated "de-linking" of economic expansion from carbon emissions, undercutting arguments that reducing emissions damages the economy.
This turn marks the first pause in the carbon emissions escalator since economic collapse cut emissions in Central Europe dramatically in the early 1990s. But unlike that reduction, the latest downturn did not result from a major economic disruption.
The recent decline stems in part from improved energy efficiency and falling coal use, spurred by new efficiency standards and the removal of energy subsidies. Also, much of the economic growth of the last two years has come in information technologies and services, sectors that are not major energy users. For example, operating the entire global Internet requires less electricity than New York City uses.
Emissions in former eastern bloc countries are still declining. Poland's emissions fell 9.7 percent in 1998 while the economy grew 6 percent. In China, the world's second largest emitter, the economy grew 7.2 percent while emissions dropped 3.7 percent. In the US, emissions increased 0.4 percent while the economy grew 3.9 percent.
Already, the U.S. Department of Energy's 1999 projection that global carbon emissions will grow at 1.3 percent annually through 2010 is off-track. It is likely that government forecasters and scientific bodies such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will now have to revise their projections downward.
It may also be less difficult to slow global warming under the Kyoto Protocol than has been assumed by some industry groups, including the Business Roundtable.
