C L I M A T E C H A N G E
by Alysia Davies
Humans have relied on nature's carbon stores since primitive times. Since fire was discovered, we have used wood, then coal, then oil and gas as the base for an ever-expanding range of activities. The phenomenon of global warming has now evoked mass confusion because, for the first time in human history, our progress depends on giving carbon up.
In order to stop climate destabilisation, every country on earth will soon have to reduce carbon emissions by 60-80 percent, according to the Worldwatch Institute. In Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), the best offers have come from the 11 countries that signed the Kyoto Protocol, which pledged to reduce emissions to 6-8 percent of their 1990 carbon emission levels by 2012.
Countries from CEE and the Newly Independant States (NIS) occupy a peculiar place in the patchwork of carbon-eaters. They are moving away from inefficient industrial production but toward greater consumption. Yet while they might have little incentive to reduce their carbon use — hoping for accelerated economic development — they have involuntarily (at times) been doing a better job than Western countries.
Largely because of economic restructuring from 1990-1995, average energy use in CEE fell 18 percent, according to the European Environmental Agency (EEA). The result is that CEE and NIS countries could find themselves below their Kyoto emission targets by the year 2012.
Furthermore, the CEE/NIS move to a free market-based economy has been more "free-market-friendly" than the West's since they have started to eliminate subsidies for fossil fuels. A recent report by the International Center for Technology Assessment in Washington found that the "real" price of gasoline in the U.S., once industry tax breaks and military protection of oil supplies are factored in, could be as high as USD 15.14 a gallon. The German government subsidises its coal industry to the tune of USD 5.3 billion a year.
In contrast, Russia has cut its fuel subsidies by half since 1990 and its carbon emissions have since dropped by more than 30 percent. All CEE countries taken together reduced their subsidies from a level of 42 percent of the market price for fuel from 1990-1991 to 23 percent from 1995-1996, reports the Worldwatch Institute.
The question is whether CEE/NIS can continue on the carbonless track. Considerable pressure is on them to increase energy use as they imitate Western-style economies and consumerism. Gradually, some emissions numbers are creeping up again. In Poland, a front-runner for EU membership and a recovering CEE economy, carbon emissions rose 2.2 percent in 1996, according to the Worldwatch Institute. Also in Poland, the volume of road traffic is expected to double by 2000 (from 1988 levels), according to a joint World Resources Institute (WRI)-REC report.
However, there are some hopeful signs. The EU has committed to doubling its use of renewable energy from 6-12 percent by 2010, and it expects pre-accession CEE countries to do the same. At an EU conference in Austria last year, the heat market was identified as the first sector that should be targeted for conversion to renewable technologies in the CEE. Cogeneration (the use of waste heat in industrial production) is a well-developed technology that could be incorporated into many CEE development projects.
Two of the three Kyoto mechanisms will most likely be very helpful to the CEE/NIS region — joint implementation (JI) and emissions trading. JI in particular will help funnel Western money toward clean energy projects. There will also be considerable incentive for the region to keep carbon output low so as to be able to sell emission allowances to a carbon-heavy Western world (see story).
However, unless CEE/NIS countries begin seriously planning and implementing domestic climate-related measures and policies now, they may not have any carbon to sell to the West, states the WRI-REC report. Several countries have already established national Climate Action Plans (i.e. Czech Republic), energy efficiency programs (i.e. Latvia) and institutions to guide climate-related activities (i.e. Hungary).
