N U C L E A R E N E R G Y
Nuclear power has entered its final chapter in the "developed" world. Of the 16 OECD countries which started nuclear power programs, all but three (France, Japan and the first "Eastern" entrant, the Czech Republic) have completed or halted all nuclear construction and have no serious plans for additional reactors. Italy and Austria have prematurely shut down their entire national nuclear programs, both by popular referendum.
These countries, with relatively well-informed electorates, reasonably functioning democracies and relative freedom of the press, have rejected nuclear power for economic, health and safety reasons. Nuclear power cannot compete with demand-side management solutions, other conventional power sources and the constantly improving economics of renewables, even without considering the environmental impacts of providing energy services.
In Central and Eastern Europe the situation is much different. The incomplete revolutions of 1989 have left centralized and often corrupt energy monopolies in place. No Eastern country with a nuclear program has abandoned pre-revolutionary plans for nuclear expansion. Of the 7 CEE countries with nuclear power programs, all except Slovenia are either continuing construction of nuclear facilities or have serious plans or high-level negotiations for the construction of additional reactors, or both.
Most of these programs have changed, however. What was the exception a mere half dozen years ago, is now the rule: Every CEE country considering nuclear expansion is looking to the West for financial and technical assistance. In Lithuania and Hungary, Western nuclear vendors starved for contracts are pushing hard to build totally new reactors. But these plans are unlikely because of the difficulty in raising the USD 1.5 to 2 billion typically needed for new nuclear power plants (NPP), and the unworkable economics compared with other solutions, especially energy efficiency.
The danger area is the unfinished Soviet-designed reactors in the Czech Republic (Temelin), Slovakia (Mochovce) and Bulgaria (Belene), and the four incomplete Canadian-designed reactors in Romania (Cernovoda). In many ways, the economics (and certainly the safety problems) of these plants are worse than the construction of new nuclear facilities, but nuclear decisions have never been made based on economics or safety - they are political issues.
In these countries, entrenched nuclear bureaucracies held over from the days of communism are fighting for their lives. Their sole function is to produce reports and lobby the government and lie to the press about the advantages of nuclear power. In Slovenia, where there will likely be a national referendum this summer on whether or not to close the Krsko NPP, we are hearing arguments that are merely laughed at in the West. Unfortunately, the anti-nuclear movement in Slovenia (and most other CEE countries) is so weak that it can barely counter these misrepresentations in the media.
Most of the news is good, however. In three of the four countries in CEE with incomplete reactors, it is unlikely they will ever be finished. Only the Czech Republic, with financial and technical assistance from the United States, continues to build the Temelin reactors in South Bohemia. But the fight is far from over there as well. The Czech Republic has the region's most active anti-nuclear movement, with several non-profit groups working on this issue and consistently holding non-violent civil disobedience actions at the plant. A growing number of politicians have expressed their concern about this seriously delayed and significantly over-budget project. Nuclear liability issues continue to haunt Temelin, and the final loan guarantee between US Export-Import and the Czech Republic remains unsigned after almost two years of negotiations.
Unfortunately, good news for us is bad news for our neighbors. The West's pro-nuclear movement has basically given up on our region after being beaten in Slovakia. They are now trying to build new reactors near St. Petersburg, Russia (despite the fact that one regional reactor at Sosnovy Bor lies idle for lack of demand) and to finish old ones in the Ukraine. The proliferation of nuclear power has not stopped; it has simply moved to other, greener pastures.