Satellites could enhance compliance with the Kyoto Protocol on climate change By Jerome Simpson A tag-team of tiny satellites, each weighing less than the average person, could give Europe a much more accurate picture of the impact each country has on climate change and help countries of this region reap the potential benefits of emissions trading. The work could be done by a constellation of three micro-spacecraft — called “micro” because they are lighter than 55 kilograms — flying in near “polar orbit,” with an operational lifetime of four years, according to a proposal put forth in September by a team from the International Space University, which convened in Bremen, Germany. These spacecraft would gather sufficient sample data over the course of one-month intervals to accurately model monthly greenhouse gas (GHG) emission totals, and hence derive national yearly averages. So what’s the benefit in that and why should countries wish to gather monthly and annual averages anyway? Well for one thing, signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are bound to report national GHG emission totals on an annual basis. GHGs, especially carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, have been shown to contribute to climate change. Another reason for more accurately measuring GHGs is the recently agreedupon Kyoto Protocol, which binds countries in Europe to reduce emissions to a level lower than their 1990 emissions before 2012. A third reason is the considerable international interest that exists today in national emissions data, which has become a valuable bargaining tool in the negotiation of emissions trading permits between the industrially developed world and economies in transition. The countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) stand to reap financial and technical gains from the emissions trading market, and a more accurate measuring system could help them do so. Current reporting of GHG emissions is a rather ad hoc process, based on estimates of carbon inputs, emission factors and mathematical models. This system is subject to considerable methodological differences in national data gathering mechanisms and reporting, and according to the Washington-based economic and social policy think-tank, Resources for the Future, yields unreliable and incomparable data. Obtaining accurate measurements of GHG emissions for countries of the CEE region is even more problematic, according to a multi-country survey published in July by the Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe (REC). The report, entitled “Complying with the Kyoto Protocol Requirements: Capacity Needs in Central and Eastern Europe,” revealed several challenges for CEE countries: disparities in the mechanisms used to collect data and limited resources for assuring compliance with the reporting mechanism; a need for expert assistance in establishing and using methodological best practices; and a need to clarify roles and responsibilities associated with national inventory compilation. When the United States opted out of the recently concluded climate change agreement, one of the reasons given was questions about the accuracy of scientific data available on the effects of GHGs. Perhaps the time is right to explore alternative approaches to monitoring GHG emissions. Resources for the Future seemed to think so too: In a May 2 article, it asked whether satellite sensors could be used to track emissions of GHGs. Satellites in polar orbit also offer the additional benefit of near global coverage, which means they could also track emissions in countries boycotting the Kyoto protocol, giving those countries new impetus to join in GHG reductions. An EU research project called COCO (or Complete Carbon Dioxide Observations) is already examining how to model remotely sensed GHG emissions, and the International Space University’s satellite project offers one answer. The 40 or so professionals working on the International Space University proposal concluded the cost of the satellite constellation would be an estimated EUR 40 million, a sum that would include construction, launch and operation. A core project team has agreed to take the proposal forward, led by the University of Bremen, Germany, to solicit interest both from the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change’s, National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme and the European Commission/ European Space Agency (ESA), within the framework of their new joint initiative called “Global Monitoring for Environment and Security.” It is hoped the results of the project will offer Europe a chance to extend the global leadership and responsibility it showed in Bonn during the July climate change talks, by offering better scientific understanding of the earth’s atmosphere. The International Space University report detailing the project can be downloaded from ftp://ftp.rec.org/microsatellites. The REC's report, entitled "Complying with the Kyoto Protocol Requirements: Capacity Needs in Central and Eastern Europe," is accessible via the Internet at http://www.rec.org/REC/Publications. Jerome Simpson (e-mail: Jsimpson@rec.org) is head of the REC’s Information Programme and a participant in the International Space University proposal.

EYES IN SPACE: A European rocket, like the one at upper left, could launch greenhouse gases monitoring satellites. Above is an image from an environmental satellite called GOES-12, which monitors weather and other conditions in the Americas. Europe could benefit from this kind of technology.