Negotiations on global warming were fizzling while the most comprehensive report on the topic found that the planet is sizzling. Though the Hague summit was a disappointment, CEE countries did make some progress toward cooperating on the issue. By Tom Popper It was a classic case of bad news and worse news. Climate change negotiators were forced to postpone until July 16 the progress they had hoped to make during a November summit in the Hague. Meanwhile, on March 5, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the last of its three reports confirming that global warming is real, it will cause serious natural disasters and that "most of the warming observed over the past 50 years is attributable to human activities." In recent years in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), the phenomenon of climate change may have played a role in deadly floods or mudslides that have hit the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia; the drought that continues to plague parts of the region, especially South Eastern Europe; and changes in bird migration - and possibly reduction in fish population - in the Baltics. During climate change negotiations in the Hague, representatives of 11 CEE countries were able to take steps toward addressing the problem by forming a strategic partnership, to push for common concerns. There is a lot to be concerned about. "Southern Europe and the European Arctic are more vulnerable than other parts of Europe," according to the IPCC research, which represents the most comprehensive analysis of climate change to date. "Water availability and soil moisture are likely to decrease in Southern Europe, and would widen the difference between the north and drought-prone south … Productivity (in agriculture) will decrease in Southern and Eastern Europe." The research further predicted that "river flood hazards will increase across most of Europe." The IPCC research, sponsored by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organisation, was prepared by scientists from more than 100 countries and presented in three reports of about 1,000 pages each. One report covers the existence and causes of climate change, another is about the expected impacts and the third report covers means of mitigating the problem. "Globally, it is very likely that the 1990s was the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year in the instrumental record since 1861," when modern record keeping began, according to a summary of the material. The research predicts that, by the end of this century, tens of millions of people could be forced to leave low-lying areas as arctic ice melts and seas rise. Already aware of the urgency of the situation, international representatives had gathered in the Hague in November, with the hope of taking concrete steps toward a solution. But the United States, whose cooperation is essential to the process, dashed those hopes by refusing to agree to any significant course of action. Because the problem is global, the solution, must come from all parts of the world, including CEE. Yet experts worry that the issue is not receiving the attention it deserves in this region. "In most of the CEE countries the climate issue is still not a priority. It might take some time for the decision-makers to recognise that coping with climate change will solve other problems, and it is a part of actions toward sustainable development," said Zsuzsanna Ivanyi, a project manager for the Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe who helped organise a special meeting for CEE countries at the Hague gathering. It will also be important for countries of the region that want to join the European Union to harmonise their climate change policies with those of the EU. Already, CEE negotiators tend to follow the EU's lead during climate change talks. The talks are part of a process that began in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, when the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change was adopted. This convention, now ratified by more than 175 countries, binds its signatories to work toward reducing the emission of greenhouse gases - such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane and certain aerosols - all of which apparently contribute to climate change. The next major international agreement on the matter was the Kyoto Protocol, adopted by over 160 countries in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. This document outlines the exact amount of greenhouse gases that a large group of developed countries, including most of the CEE countries, would be allowed to emit. The meeting in the Hague was meant to take the process one step further by putting teeth in the Kyoto Protocol - essentially working out details on implementing emissions targets. But no agreement could be reached. According to Maria Khovanskaia, a climate change expert out of University of Heidelberg who works in CEE and attended the Hague meeting, US negotiators took the position that climate change could be combated predominantly through reforestation, because forests are known to reduce greenhouse gases by absorbing carbon dioxide. "Their opponents, mainly Europeans, argued that the emphasis should be put on prevention measures, through industrial abatement," Khovanskaia said. The U.S. has traditionally dragged its feet on climate change agreements, because conventions that could put checks on industrial activity are politically unpopular there. With their November elections pending, the American negotiators were especially hesitant to act. And their new president, George W. Bush, has called the Kyoto Protocol too restrictive. So that, even when the Americans do return to the climate-change bargaining table, they may not have much to put on it. After some delays, the next talks are scheduled for July 16-27 in Bonn. Some reason to hope for more progress in Bonn can be found in the IPCC report on mitigating the problem of climate change. The report suggests that the reforestation approach favoured by US negotiators - which involves creating forests to act as "carbon sinks" - is an effective way to combat climate change, at least in the short term. Another strategy suggested by the IPCC report is "emissions trading," a system to which the Americans are also amenable. Emissions trading is not just important for the US, it is also of particular interest to the countries of CEE, who could benefit financially. Emissions trading lets countries that are producing less greenhouse gas than the limit allowed them under the Kyoto Protocol to effectively sell their surplus of clean air to countries that want to exceed their allowed limits. The sudden drop in economic activity in the early 1990s means that most of the countries of this region are producing less air pollution than before, so CEE governments could get money from more industrially active, highly polluting countries in exchange for keeping their factories shut. This source of income may be short-lived, however, as the economies of the region begin to get more competitive. Another climate change financial instrument that is important to CEE countries is the system of activities implemented jointly (AIJ). This provides financial incentives for more-developed nations to invest in projects that help less-developed nations reduce pollution. While the CEE nations would not get direct cash payments from AIJs, they would receive funding for cleaner technologies. These issues, and others of special importance to CEE countries, were discussed during the special meeting that Ivanyi helped organise at the Hague. "It was very useful, providing an open, frank exchange of views. The discussion definitely contributed to clarifying different issues and harmonising the diverse positions," Ivanyi said. She added that CEE representatives need to do more toward developing a common strategy before Bonn. Tibor Farago of the Hungarian Environment Ministry was also involved in organising the special CEE meeting and helping to establish a "new negotiating group" for countries from the region. He said that, even in the Hague negotiations, this group was already proving to be effective at cooperating for common concerns. The new group, called the G11, is made up of the 10 EU accession countries from CEE and Croatia. "There are many strong groups in the international negotiations," Ivanyi noted. "If the CEE countries will not put their strength together, no result will be achieved." But she added that she hoped "the recently created CEE group has good chance to express the interest of the region." Of course, climate change is not only important to the region because of the opportunities provided by AIJs and emissions trading. "It should be economical and security issue in every country. As was stated by IPCC, global warming will cause and is causing already ‘significant loss of life and economic costs,' " said Khovanskaia. The IPCC research contains a lot of bad news. It projects that global average temperatures could rise by between 1.4 degrees and 5.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. This is a much faster rate of warming, and a much bigger increase, than previously forecast in 1995. The research also said that new analyses of data indicate that the temperature rise in the 20th century was the greatest for 1,000 years. In addition to bringing bad news, the IPCC lists possible steps that the world can take to address the problem, including alternative energy sources, reforestation, and elimination of outdated technology. "There is no single path to a low emission future and countries and regions will have to choose their own path," according to the report. It added that actions to reduce climate change will have some side benefits "For example, they may reduce health problems; increase employment reduce negative environmental impacts (like air pollution); protect and enhance forests, soils and watersheds … and induce technological change and diffusion, contributing to wider goals of sustainable development." Reducing greenhouse gases will not be easy, and will require "a very significant reduction in world carbon emissions per unit of GDP," according to the IPCC. But it seems that ignoring the problem is no longer an option. Summaries of the report can be found online at: http://www.ipcc.ch/

A drought-parched lake in Bulgaria