SURF’S UP: New York gets a blast of extreme weather in “The Day After Tomorrow”. Photo: 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORPORATION

Although a tidal wave is not expected to engulf New York any time soon, extreme weather events are high on the agenda when scientists meet with policy makers. The film was playing in a nearby cinema when European environment and health ministers gathered in Budapest for a World Health Organization conference in June.

Conference participants discussed the film’s real-world implications. Most could accept the basic premise of the movie — that global warming-related melting of the polar ice caps might disrupt the Gulf Stream — but said the plot dramatically shortened the time frame in which such an event could happen.

The subsequent story line, including temperature plunges of hundreds of degrees a minute, was pure nonsense. Despite these failings, Professor Andy Haines of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine welcomed the film because “it made the public aware of the problems.”

Crisis heating up

Last summer’s heatwave, blamed for 30,000 deaths across Europe, brought extreme weather events into sharp focus. The failure to protect the most vulnerable during the scorching weeks of August served as a wake up call for the international health community. France alone registered 15,000 deaths in the first three weeks of August last year, with temporary morgues set up on Paris boulevards.

The conference discussed France’s new Heatwave Alert System, the Plan Canicule, and the elaborate plans to test it out in early July. Municipalities throughout France have produced lists of vulnerable people, the government has given grants for cool rooms in hospitals and homes for the elderly, and the emergency services received training on dealing with the effects of heatstroke.

“The effects of climate change may have disproportionate effects on future generations unless urgent measures are taken,” the World Health Organization’s Bettina Menne said at the conference.

Conference documents talked of pronounced warming during the last quarter century and an increase in the annual number of warm extremes twice as fast as expected. A probability graph presented by one expert showed temperatures an average of six degrees Celsius higher in 70 years' time. Data from the International Panel on Climate Change predict an average increase in global temperature during the 21st century of 1.4-5.8, and a maximum of 7-10 degrees Celsius.

Scientists at the conference urged policy makers to consider the changing climate and its implications for long-term city planning. There should be more green open spaces and trees to provide shade and less heat absorbing surfaces. Ventilation and air flow management between buildings should be a priority. Building design should also garner attention, with more thought given to the thermal capacity of structures. Measures to promote passive cooling and to control solar irradiation were important.

Energy saving; change of consumption patterns; new policies on traffic and industrial production technology improvements are the priorities for Central and Eastern Europe, says Zsuzsa Ivanyi of the REC’s Climate Change Programme. The region needs vulnerability assessment and a programme for mitigating the harmful effects of climate change.